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Oil Majors Stuck Between A Rock And A Hard Place

Oil Majors Stuck Between A Rock And A Hard Place

By Andreas De Vries – Oct 18, 2020, 6:00 PM CDT

Extracts

The past few years have been historic for as far as crude oil forecasts are concerned. Back in 2015 the view that crude oil demand could peak during the 2020s or 2030s was still met with disbelief (and some ridicule…). Economic growth had been pushing crude oil demand up ever year for decades already, so why would things become different, so the reasoning went. Today, however, essentially all major energy forecasters, including BPShellTotalDNV-GL, the IEA and even OPEC, have come round and acknowledge Peak Oil Demand as a realistic possibility.

The strategic response of the Oil Majors to this possibility has differed. But so far, none seem to have won over the investment community. What could be the reason for this? And does this leave the Majors at risk of being cut-off from capital?

Shell was the first to adopt the Energy Transition scenario as the core for its future strategy, as evidenced by the fact that over the past years  it has announced a number of decisions that are natural responses to this scenario. For example, in 2016 it launched a New Energy division to leverage the opportunities that would result from the Energy Transition, such as in electricity generation, batteries, grid management and hydrogen. in 2018 it adopted methane emissions intensity targets for its assets, which has led it to divest from crude oil resources with high carbon intensity such as the Canadian tar sands. In 2019 the company adopted a new ambition to become the largest power company in the world during the 2030s. And most recently the company announced that it would accelerate it transformation in response to the Energy Transition. It adopted “net zero” emissions targets in April of 2020, and in September 2020 launched a major restructuring to free up funds for investment in the New Energy area.

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