This article was originally published in the December 2008 issue of the IAGS Journal of Energy Security
SUNDAY, 14 DECEMBER 2008 00:00 WARREN WILCZEWSKI
Russias efforts to create within the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) a more focused “Big Gas Troika” composed of Iran, Qatar, and Russia have been identified as a serious threat to European, and global energy security. Following an October 21st, 2008 meeting in Tehran between representatives of the three countries, a Gazprom press release suggested this producers group (also referred to as a “Gas G3”) could be expanded, and include other GECF countries in what Alexei Miller calls an “Energy Pole.” Parallels with OPEC, which at its inception also functioned as a consultative body, are clear; the proposed organization bears the hallmarks of a nascent cartel an Organization of Gas Exporting Countries (OGEC), with Russia in the drivers seat. In the short term, prospects of such a cartel have remained a marginal concern for EU Energy Commissioner Andris Pielbags, who finds Norways categorical opposition to membership in such an organization reassuring. A recent IEA report, however, suggests such a cartel may indeed emerge within ten years, further empowering its members in their dealings with major gas importing countries.
Motivations behind the recent flurry of activity vary. With crude (and thus prices of gas exports linked to it) currently below Russias $70 budget break-even point, the Kremlin needs a catalyst to bring prices up again. In this sense the aftermath of the Georgia conflict must have been a disappointment. Despite reports of Russian bombs landing just meters away from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, energy prices continued dropping throughout August. Simultaneous saber-rattling rhetoric from Tehran, and suggestions by Revolutionary Guard General Mohammad Ali Jafari of a possible strike on US forces in the Strait of Hormuz, also failed to slow this downward slide. As prices continued to fall into September Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, attending OPECs Vienna meeting as an observer, suggested closer cooperation with the oil cartel, and proposed holding a meeting of the group in Moscow. After even this move failed to halt the decline in oil prices, to which most of Russias gas supply contracts are linked, a new approach was required. read more
Like this:
Like Loading...
This website and sisters
royaldutchshellplc.com,
shellnazihistory.com,
royaldutchshell.website,
johndonovan.website, and
shellnews.net,
are owned by
John Donovan. There is also a
Wikipedia segment.