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Shell thinks demand for oil could peak in five years

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Written by Bloomberg – 02/11/2016 4:16 pm

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s second-biggest oil company by market value, thinks demand for oil could peak in as little as five years.

“We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply,” Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry said on a conference call on Tuesday. “And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport.” read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Shell’s flawed Scenarios predictions

Screen Shot 2013-03-01 at 22.08.52Shell has been forecasting dramatic increases in its own production (which have never materialised) for years. If they cannot accurately forecast how their own assets will perform, how can they expect to forecast the whole world’s activities. Vince Cable was actively involved in scenario planning development while at Shell. Need I say more?

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Screen Shot 2013-10-25 at 10.27.00By John Donovan

In the last several days there have been several articles published telling the world about the latest predictions from the famed Shell Scenarios soothsayers forecasting peak oil and the end of the oil era.

Shell says the end of the oil era is 2070: Mother Nature Network (blog)-by Jim Motavalli-Oct 18, 2013
Like the UN with its high, medium and low predictions, Shell is saying ” if … By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free and …

Shell predicts petroleum-powered cars will be ‘nearly’ gone by 2070 …: Autoblog (blog)-by Sebastian Blanco-Oct 18, 2013
“By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free.” That’s the key line (for us, anyway) in a report out from Shell titled New Lens …
read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Jeroen van der Veer: Hypocrite Supreme

Screen Shot 2013-05-18 at 23.12.50Mr Van der Veer (shown right) is no fan of this website. In January 2008, as was reported in The Times, we published a leaked email from him in which he forecast that world demand for oil and gas would outstrip supply within 7 years. Events has shown that he was talking nonsense on that occasion as well.

By John Donovan

The fuelfix headline encapsulated the theme of the speech given last Thursday by former Royal Dutch Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer at the KPMG Global Energy Conference in Houston:

Former Shell CEO: Safety must come first. And second. And third.

This qualifies as sheer hypocrisy on his part.

On his watch, Shell had an absolutely atrocious safety track record for which he was publicly criticised.

(Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer “hurt” by criticism: 3 Sept 2007)

On his watch, even lifeboats serving Shell North Sea platforms were found to be unseaworthy. read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

The End of Oil

FROM A REGULAR CONTRIBUTOR

John

The following link provides access to information and graphs that may be of interest to some of your readers.

PDF] “The End of Oil”

It shows, for example that it took almost 150 years for the world to produce and consume its first trillion bbls of oil. Today, at current rates of consumption, we shall consume the next trillion bbls in a little over 30 years. Needless to say, consumption and flaring of natural gas will follow the same trend.

In that same time period, about 150 years, the carbon dioxide levels of the Earth’s atmosphere doubled. Suffice it to say, in the next 30 years we shall most probably dump as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as was dumped in the last 150 years.
Given the advances in drilling technologies it is highly probable that the trend will continue for another 30 odd years, at least. So, in the next 60+ years we can look forward to a doubling of the atmospheres current CO2 levels. That is bad news. One can only imagine what this portends for climate warming, i.e., a continuation and acceleration. read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Is the Second Great Depression Imminent?

Here is the “recipe” for the greatest disaster ever. What cheap and abundant oil created, Peak Oil will destroy; our failure to invest in alternatives 10 or 20 years ago is about to fall on us.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Bad news bearers

Collectively, the world's Big Five (Chevon, Exxon Mobil, BP PLC, Royal Dutch Shell and Conoco Phillips) raked in $44.4 billion, up 58% from a year ago in the third quarter. Yet, despite being richer than more than half the world's economies combined, these giants are now warning they're bracing for the fallout of a global economic meltdown. One, I might add, they helped to ignite by limiting production when demand was at a high, and peak-oil speculators were laughing all the way to the bank.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Peak Oil: Are Oil Prices Destined to Rise Again?

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

October 31, 2008, 12:13 pm

Posted by Keith Johnson

Crude oil futures continued down on Friday, spooked by the dim outlook for the U.S. economy. That’s precisely what makes it likely oil prices will rebound next year.

TroutRun_art_200v_20081031111117.jpg  A tough run upstream (AP)

Big oil companies are already finding it harder to maintain, let alone increase, production. Chevron doubled its third-quarter net profit, but said production fell 5.7% in the quarter, after ExxonMobil reported an 8% production drop yesterday.

Falling oil prices are only going to accelerate that trend, analysts warn, at a time when OPEC is accelerating output cuts and production declines at oil fields around the world is apparently increasing. read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Global oil crunch

Even Royal Dutch Shell, commissioned to write a balancing view for the group's report, is forecasting a plateau of supply as production moves to more difficult sources such as ultra-deeplayers and tar sands.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

UK will face peak oil crisis within five years, report warns

Skrebowski predicts that global oil production will peak in the period 2011-2013 and then decline steadily, with non-conventional sources such as tar sands failing to fill the gap in time to avoid a serious energy crunch.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Shell’s hilarious attempt to beef up email security

By John Donovan

7 October 2008

Shell employees will need to be even more on their guard when communicating by email or using instant messaging systems. Shell Global Security managed by Ian Forbes McCredie OBE, a former senior officer of the British Secret Service, will now have access to an archive of all such communications.

The new security monitoring systems are thought to be an attempt to stem the flow of leaked emails to what Reuters has described as the “unofficial” Shell website, royaldutchshellplc.com read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Drowning in oil

Rockefeller's business model has permeated throughout the world as well as his hunger for more. When Standard Oil was broken up in 1911, two splintered companies were present day ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell. Today, ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell are two of the largest companies in the world, in fact rated numbers two and three in 2008 by Fortune 500 magazine.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Peak oil is coming, and we’re unready

Jeroen van der Veer, chief of Royal Dutch Shell, earlier this year predicted 2015 as the year the world reaches peak production. John Hess of Hess Corp. said: "An oil crisis is coming in the next 10 years. It's not a matter of demand. It's not a matter of supplies. It's both."

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Cries in the Dark: How serious is America’s energy crisis?

James Schlesinger, the first U.S. energy secretary, has said for decades that when it comes to energy policy, the U.S. toggles between complacency and panic.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Shell says world can stabilize greenhouse gas levels

Thirst for energy will double in the first half of the century, but increased biofuel production and carbon storage could help the world stabilize greenhouse gas levels by the 2020s, oil giant Shell said on Wednesday.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Who wants oil prices to fall?

...does Saudi Arabia really want to bring oil prices down?

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Demand causing oil crisis, insists Brown

Gordon Brown clashed with leading oil-producing nations yesterday, insisting that surging demand from the developing world rather than speculative pressures was driving up oil prices and creating an oil crisis to match those of the 1970s.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Warning that oil summit could push price up

Van der Veer has said peak oil is close and that it is time to start producing it from new sources such as tar sands and gas-to-liquids.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Is this the end of oil?

For generations, we've taken it for granted. But as prices soar and reserves dwindle, the time is fast approaching when mankind will have to live without oil. Are we ready to confront some really inconvenient truths?

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Spoiling the barrel

Tiny printing on the inside cover of the document reveals a catch-all caveat. The information presented comes not from primary BP research but from "official sources and third-party data" and "does not necessarily represent BP's view of proved reserves by country". This astonishing get-out clause has been inserted in the BP review every year since Shell was caught lying about its reserves in 2004.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Oil shortage a myth, says industry insider

Although it is widely assumed that the world has reached a point where oil production has peaked and proven reserves have sunk to roughly half of original amounts, this idea is based on flawed thinking, said Richard Pike, a former oil industry man who is now chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Oil price pushed to new records as US economy plunges further

The price of crude oil was catapulted $11.31 to a new all-time high of $139.12 in New York, its biggest one day gain in dollar terms on record, driven by an almost unprecedented rise in US unemployment and signs that Israel is preparing for outright conflict with Iran and on the Gaza Strip.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Is There an Oil Crisis Looming?

Peak Oil may be in the future but Peak Oil Awareness has arrived. I expectTime and Newsweek cover articles on Peak Oil any week now marking the official top in oil awareness. It has already made the covers of The Economist and Business Week, the leading indicators of magazine covers.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Has Oil Production Reached a ‘De Facto’ Peak?

I’m not sure what to call the peak we have now reached. Maybe it should be called “Peak Practical Production.” Or “De Facto Peak Oil.” Or just, “Th..Th..That’s All, Folks.”

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Oil Exporters Are Unable To Keep Up With Demand

"The sense in the market is that peak oil is here and that things will only get worse,"...

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Shell sees end of ‘easy oil’ era

"The challenges are huge. We've now got 30,000 technologists in Shell alone trying to find new ways to get oil and gas," Mr Smith revealed.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Cheap oil is history. But why?

The stampede in the oil market is making billions of dollars for a lucky few and leading others to wonder whether the world is finally starting to run dry. Until recently, the notion that international production was about to reach its limits – the so-called “peak oil” theory – was the preserve of cranks and crackpots.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Running on empty?

So are the peak oilists right? A series of recent events certainly appears to lend credence to those who argue that the world's ageing oilfields are being sucked dry amid China's and India's determination to lift themselves out of poverty and the west's reluctance to give up the luxuries of modern oil-dependent life.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

The End of OPEC

Churchill’s assessment applies to the current oil situation: this is the beginning of the end of OPEC. That much is obvious; the more interesting question is “why?”

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

‘Peak oil’ is here. Now what?

What does it mean that crude oil is peaking? Essentially it means that the world has used half the oil available to extract and will enter a permanent decline, even as world energy demand is rising, with new economic powerhouses China and India growing at an alarming rate. Peak oil does not mean we are on the verge of running out of oil; the overriding implication is that we are entering a period of relentlessly rising prices and ultimate shortfalls.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Shell Oil boss calls for new energy policy

On a day that oil futures touched a record $123 a barrel, John Hofmeister, president of Shell Oil Co., the U.S. division of Royal Dutch Shell, said oil companies need to find “unconventional” sources of oil as existing sources dry up.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Running out of Oil: Shell Execs Briefed on Peak Oil in 1956

When did Shell executives first learn that the world would one day face the moment of peak oil, known to many as Hubbert’s Peak? Answer: as far back as 1956 when M. King Hubbert delivered his seminal speech to Shell employees predicting the day when oil reserves would begin to decline. For more than a half century, Shell has known that the world of the 21st Century would begin running out of oil with disastrous ramifications. Yet little was done to prepare society.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Uncomfortable truths about global oil depletion

Shell's oil production has been falling for six years, BP's seems to have peaked 2005, and this week even the mighty Exxon was forced to admit its output dropped 10% in the first quarter of the year.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

What the news media says about the website which has cost Shell billions…

In July 2007, the One World Trust, an independent research organisation associated with the UK Houses of Parliament and the United Nations, said in an "Accountability in Action" newsletter: "As The Royal Dutch Shell plc website shows, a gripe site can have a profound impact on global organisations". The newsletter went on to say: "The site has not only cost Shell billions of dollars in Russia... "even Shell insiders unhappy with the company use it".

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Why Exxon Still Denies Peak Oil

Executives, especially Exxon executives, have thought for some time that they could keep oil prices under control by pretending that Peak Oil is a left-wing myth. Or that it won’t happen until we’re all dead. Most executives (other than Exxon’s) have stopped that foolishness by now.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Time for big oil to explore places it would rather avoid

Rising costs and taxes, and limited access to new supplies help explain why BP and Shell have performed so badly and underperformed US peers ExxonMobil and Chevron. But other factors have been at work, such as the fatal accident at BP's Texas City oil refinery and the reserve misreporting scandal at Shell.

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren’t Scarce

THE NEW YORK TIMES: On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren’t Scarce

“He pointed to those Canadian oil sands – where, he said, Shell Canada recently announced it was going to raise its investment to $7.3 billion from $4 billion to produce an additional 100,000 barrels a day. “Just think about that; $3.3 billion for just 100,000 barrels,” he said. “Doesn’t that tell you something?”

Saturday 10 Sept 2005

By Joseph Nocera

Published: September 10, 2005

We’re halfway through the hydrocarbon era,” my old friend T. Boone Pickens has been saying for the last couple of years. You may remember Mr. Pickens as the most famous corporate raider of the 1980’s, but he has spent his life in the oil patch. A geologist by training, Mr. Pickens founded Mesa Petroleum at the age of 26 and ran it for the next 40 years. Now, at 77, he works the oil patch in a different way, running a pair of energy-oriented hedge funds in Dallas. read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

AP Worldstream: Are we there yet? Some see the beginning of the end of the road for oil

AP Worldstream: Are we there yet? Some see the beginning of the end of the road for oil

MATT CRENSON

May 29, 2005

Could the petroleum joyride _ cheap, abundant oil that has sent the global economy whizzing along with the pedal to the metal and the air conditioning blasting for decades _ be coming to an end?

Some observers of the oil industry think so. They predict that this year, maybe next _ almost certainly by the end of the decade _ the world’s oil production, having grown exuberantly for more than a century, will peak and begin to decline.

And then it really will be all downhill. The price of oil will increase drastically. Major oil-consuming countries will experience crippling inflation, unemployment and economic instability. Princeton University geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes predicts “a permanent state of oil shortage.” read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

The Sunday Times: The only way is up for oil prices

The Sunday Times: The only way is up for oil prices

 

By Dominic Rushe

May 23, 2004

 

ACROSS America the average price of regular petrol passed $2 (€1.66) a gallon last Monday. To outsiders, American fuel still looks laughably cheap. Aquafina, a popular bottled water, costs about $2.50 a gallon. But this is a big country with a bad train system where people and goods are transported long distances in big cars and trucks.

 

Pump prices have risen by 28% since January, and odds are they will keep rising. The consequences are far from funny. Expensive petrol is a national disaster. America’s motor industry is already feeling the pinch. read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.

Street Sleuth: Oil-Price Forecasts Seem to Miss Upward Trend

The Wall Street Journal: Street Sleuth: Oil-Price Forecasts Seem to Miss Upward Trend

Wall Street Tends to Make Wrong Calls in Rallies; History Is No Assurance

By JUSTIN LAHART

Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

May 19, 2004; Page C3

Most energy watchers agree: The price of oil won’t remain above $40. But if the recent history of oil prices is any sort of guide, the slippery slope may lead upward.

Wall Street’s consistently wrong call on the price of a barrel of oil at any given time is perhaps most notable when the commodity is rallying. Recent lowball oil forecasts, in turn, help explain why Wall Street has produced low earnings forecasts for energy companies. The problem: Energy analysts by profession appear to assume a reversion to means when analyzing oil — that is, they assume any big move in price soon will be followed by a move back to the historical norm.
read more

shellplc.website and its sister non-profit websites royaldutchshellplc.com, royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellenergy.website, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net and shell2004.com are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia feature.
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