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Shell says Geismar olefins expansion project still on schedule

|By: , SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) says it remains on schedule in the construction of its $717M project to increase alpha olefins production at its Geismar, La., chemical manufacturing plant, which will become the world’s largest AO production site.

Shell says the 425K metric tons/year AO unit, which will join three existing units at the site, will begin commercial production by year-end 2018.

Shell plans to supply the Geismar expansion with ethylene feedstock from its nearby Norco, La., and Deer Park, Tex., manufacturing sites, which would bring total AO production at Geismar to more than 1.3M tons/year.

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Shell: Executing On Its Plan But No Upside In The Stock Price

By : May 31, 2017

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) suffered a dramatic drop in earnings and cash flow in 2015 and 2016, as crude oil prices fell from about $100 per barrel to about $50 barrel in the second half of 2014.

From $14.7 billion earnings in 2014, Shell’s earnings fell to $2.2 billion for 2015 and $4.8 billion in 2016. In response, Shell embarked on a strategic transformation of their entire company, of which the key cornerstones were:

  • Completion of the acquisition of BG;
  • Divestment of in assets;
  • Bringing new production online for ongoing projects;
  • Realizing operating cost reductions; and
  • Reducing debt.

My analysis of their financials show that while they are on track to achieve their plan, investors should not expect dividend increases through 2020. In this article, I will review the impact of the divestments on the balance sheet and the required run-rate free cash flow that Shell will need to deliver on its financial strategy. I conclude that the dividends are safe, but share price appreciation will be limited.

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Shell, Aramco divide up Motiva JV assets

|By: , SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) and Saudi Aramco complete the separationof the assets, liabilities and businesses of their U.S.-based refining and marketing joint venture.

Shell now holds sole ownership of the 235K bbl/day Norco refinery, where subsidiary Shell Chemical already operates a petrochemical plant, and the 242,250 bbl/day Convent refinery, which Motiva previously said will be integrated to create the Louisiana Refining System, as well as 11 distribution terminals.

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Reuters: Shell testing Nigeria’s Forcados oil pipeline for restart

|By: , SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) is testing Nigeria’s Trans Forcados crude export pipeline for a potential restart, with the Astro Perseus tanker expected to load the first cargo by the weekend, Reuters reports.

Forcados had produced 200K-240K bbl/day before attacks damaged the pipeline in February 2016 and again in October.

A full resumption of Forcados could complicate matters for OPEC, which meets later this month to determine whether to extend production cuts beyond June, or potentially deepen them; Libya and Nigeria were exempt from the original cuts.

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Bloomberg: Shell to cut bidders to three for Argentina assets

May 3, 2017 5:47 PM ET|By: , SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) plans to focus on three bidders this month for its downstream oil assets in Argentina after drawing eight non-binding bids of $1B-$2B, Bloomberg reports.

The shortlisted suitors will enter the next phase of the sales process in the next 2-3 weeks, with Chile’s Grupo Luksic among the most appealing of the companies making offers, according to the report.

Shell put the assets, which include an oil refinery near Buenos Aires and ~600 refueling stations, up for sale earlier this year after a strategic review under the company’s $30B divestment plan to reduce debt.

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Support grows for Australian cross-continent pipeline to combat gas shortages

Apr. 19, 2017 12:42 PM ET|By: , SA News Editor

Australia’s government may support construction of a 1K-mile gas pipeline likely to cost more than A$5B (US$3.8B), WSJ reports, amid growing concern about shortages of liquefied natural gas and blackouts on the country’s populous eastern seaboard.

Two senior ministers expressed support for a transcontinental pipeline as Prime Minister Turnbull met with major LNG exporters including Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Santos (OTCPK:STOSF) to discuss ways of getting more LNG into the domestic energy market.

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Dutch to cut Groningen gas production to lower earthquake risk

Apr. 18, 2017 12:56 PM ET|By: , SA News Editor

The Netherlands will cut production of its Groningen gas field by 10% beginning in October to limit the risk of earthquakes, the country’s economy minister says.

Production would be reduced to 21.6B cm/year from 24B cm/year as a first step, according to the minister; output has been cut several times from 53.9B cm in 2013 as criticism mounted the Dutch government had failed to adequately assess the risk from earthquakes caused by production at Europe’s biggest field.

Groningen is operated by a joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM).

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Shell wants Dutch government to target 20 GW in offshore wind by 2030

Apr. 13, 2017 8:25 AM ETBy: , SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) says it has urged the Dutch government to come up with bolder offshore wind targets and quadruple the goal for installed capacity to 20 GW by 2030.

Shell, which has traditionally invested little in green energy sources, is ramping up renewable energy investments to $1B/year by the end of the decade after pressure from shareholders.

Some of the company’s recent activities in renewable energy include winning a contract leading a consortium to build a wind farm off the coast of the Netherlands and bidding for an offshore wind license in the U.S.

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Royal Dutch Shell: Unsustainable

Quad 7 Capital: Apr. 6, 2017 12:43 PM ET

Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) has been a name of controversy of late. Why? Well, this is an oil stock and oil prices have meandered. While shares are up substantially off of their multi-year lows seen a year ago, this stock still yields 7%. The dividend payment is the center of most controversy, with so many feeling it is unsustainable. That is what I keep hearing. Unsustainable. They tell me Shell is ‘unsustainable’ at $40 oil. They tell me the dividend is most certainly ‘unsustainable’ in the current climate. Some go so far as to say the entire oil industry is ‘unsustainable.’

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FT: Shell’s top oil trader defends North Sea Brent activity


Mar. 29, 2017 12:57 PM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS.A, RDS.B) VP of crude oil trading is out with a strong defense against accusations that the company’s activity in the North Sea crude market has skewed the benchmark Brent contract that underpins global oil prices.

Shell allegedly traded very aggressively in the region during 2016, with large positions in North Sea crude at times running contrary to clear signs of oversupply in the market, with the buying spree seen potentially pushing up prices.

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OPEC Has To Extend Cuts – Shell Will Benefit Strongly From The Action

Gary Bourgeault: 28 March 2017

One of the best things to happen to the U.S. shale industry was the plunge in the price of oil. It caused creative companies with good management to aggressively pursue ways of slashing costs, while at the same time improving productivity.

A number of the pure plays like EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) have been able to significantly improve efficiencies, to the point EOG can generate a 30 percent return when oil is at $40 per barrel. Lately, major producer Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) has taken a larger position in shale, and says new wells in its Permian holdings can generate a profit at $20 per barrel. Overall, it can make money when oil is at $40 in the Permian.

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Shell says to start cleaning up 2008 Nigeria oil spills in April

Mar. 24, 2017 2:19 PM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

The head of a group helping organize Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS.A, RDS.B) clean-up of 2008 oil spills at a Nigerian Delta community says he hopes work can begin next month.

Shell agreed in 2015 on a £55M ($68.6M) settlement with the Bodo community after accepting liability for two pipeline leaks, but it says members of the community denied it access in August 2015 when clean-up work was set to begin.

A WSJ report yesterday said the Shell spills had contributed to “astonishingly high” pollution levels in the area, citing a consultant who helped produce a confidential damage assessment.

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WSJ: Shell report cites “astonishingly high” pollution from Nigerian oil spills

The former director of the cleanup project says Shell has denied him permission to publish the study’s results, which dictated a need for health screenings in the Bodo community.

Mar. 23, 2017 5:19 PM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) oil spills that have not been cleaned up for more than eight years have contributed to “astonishingly high” levels of pollution in a Nigerian community, WSJ reports, citing a consultant who helped produce a confidential damage assessment for the company and its partners.

The former director of the cleanup project says Shell has denied him permission to publish the study’s results, which dictated a need for health screenings in the Bodo community.

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Shell leads more active Gulf of Mexico federal oil lease sale

Mar. 22, 2017 6:35 PM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) led the way in today’s federal offshore lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico, which drew $275M in high bids following years of declining offshore interest that dates back before the downturn in oil and gas prices.

Shell made 20 bids totaling $55.9M, including the single highest apparent bid of $24.1M on Atwater Valley Block 64; Statoil (NYSE:STO) counted 13 apparent high bids totaling $44.5M, and Hess (NYSE:HES) ranked third with 12 apparent high bids totaling $43.9M.

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Shell cancels Prince Rupert LNG project, to move forward on Kitimat project

Mar. 13, 2017 1:36 PM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) says it is ending development of its proposed Prince Rupert liquefied natural gas project in British Columbia but is still considering the potential of its other Pacific coast LNG option.

Prince Rupert LNG was part of a portfolio of projects acquired in the takeover of BG Group last year, but Shell says the project no longer stacks up against existing options.

Shell said it continues to actively move forward on the proposed Kitimat LNG Canada project in B.C. with its partners, even though last year it indefinitely deferred a final investment decision on it because of market conditions.

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Royal Dutch Shell: A Lot Of Debt

Brandon Dempster: Jan 19, 2017

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) has a sizeable debt wall ahead of them. With nearly $20 billion in debt due over the next five years, this company is going to have to be firing on all cylinders in order to not just meet these principal repayments, but to generate enough cash flow to fund the sizeable dividend, boost capital expenditure per the company’s Q3 2016 guidance, and still remain in positive free cash flow territory. It’s important that investors take a tough look at the debt due this year and understand the company’s current liquidity position.

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Dutch court upholds Groningen gas production cap

Jan. 5, 2017 2:28 PM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

A Dutch court today upheld a government decision to cap production at the Groningen gas field at 24B cm until Oct. 1, 2021, a step aimed at easing the risk of earthquakes triggered by drawing gas from the field.

The court was responding to requests for a preliminary injunction against the June decision, opposed by groups who sought a halt or a deeper cut to production at Groningen.

Output has been cut several times from 53.9B cm in 2013 amid criticism that Dutch authorities had failed to adequately assess the risk to citizens from earthquakes caused by gas production.

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Royal Dutch Shell: Prepare For Strong Upside

Dec. 29, 2016 3:08 AM ET

Summary

  • Royal Dutch Shell will report strong growth in the cash flow in the long run as it brings online low-cost production with cash operating costs of just $15/barrel.
  • In a $60 oil price environment, Shell’s free cash flow is expected to grow to $25 billion in 2020 as compared to $12 billion at a price of $90/barrel earlier.
  • Due to the growth in the free cash flow and low capital expenses as more projects come online, Shell’s operating cash flow will grow to $50 billion in 2020.
  • At an operating cash flow of $50 billion and a price to cash flow ratio of 15, Shell’s market capitalization is set to triple in the coming four years.

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Royal Dutch Shell – Income Investors Should Look Elsewhere

Casey Hoerth: Dec. 14, 2016 11:09 AM ET

Summary

Shell plans on between $25 billion and $30 billion in capex next year, with flexibility to the downside.

I do not expect Shell to achieve cash flow balance in 2016, even with asset sales.

I continue to recommend other energy companies over Royal Dutch Shell, until either oil prices recover more or until Shell does something else to achieve balance.

Over the course of 2016 I haven’t recommended much when it comes buying to upstream or integrated oil companies. The reason was that I felt many still weren’t doing enough to balance their money coming in versus money going out. The CEO of one of my favorite companies, in their latest analyst day, recently quipped that energy companies couldn’t afford to wait to be ‘bailed out’ by higher oil prices.

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Noble Corp. sinks as Shell idles two drillships

Dec. 12, 2016 11:56 AM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A +1.3%) says it is idling two Noble Corp. (NE -3.7%) ultra-deepwater drillships, citing the current, challenging environment for offshore exploration and production projects.

Shell says it will idle the Noble Globetrotter II for up to two years, starting in January, during which it will pay a negotiated dayrate of $185K, and idle the Noble Bully II for up to a year at a negotiated dayrate of $200K.

The primary term for the Noble Bully II, Noble Globetrotter I and Noble Globetrotter II are unchanged, with contracts expected to conclude in April 2022, July 2022 and September 2023, respectively.

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Shell, Total to sign oil deals with Iran

Dec. 7, 2016 5:48 AM ET| By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) and Total (NYSE:TOT) will signinitial agreements today to develop oil and gas fields in Iran, in the first European petroleum deals in the country since sanctions eased earlier this year.

But the plans open both companies to potential risks from the incoming Trump administration.

Though Total is French and Shell is jointly headquartered in London and The Hague, both companies have substantial American operations.

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FT: Western oil companies reach $5B deal with Nigeria

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Nov. 8, 2016 10:23 AM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Nigeria’s government has reached an outline settlement to resolve a dispute with western energy firms that would pay the companies $5B to cover exploration and production joint venture costs in the country, Financial Times reports.

Nigeria’s petroleum minister tells FT that Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Eni (NYSE:E), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Total (NYSE:TOT) accepted the settlement of costs incurred during 2010-15, and hopes a deal can be finalized by year-end.

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Royal Dutch Shell: The Comeback Is Here

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Alpha Investor: Sunday Nov 6, 2016

Summary

  • Shell posted a massive turnaround in its bottom line last quarter on the back of an improved production profile, lower costs, and higher price realizations.
  • Shell’s financial improvement is set to continue going forward as upstream oil price realizations will continue to improve on the back of a positive demand-supply environment in the oil industry.
  • Oil demand has exceeded supply by 500,000 bpd this year and the trend will continue as the likes of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. continue to reduce output.
  • Shell’s focus on lowering both operating and capital costs will allow it to attain break-even point even if oil prices remain at $50/barrel, which will also improve cash flow.

On Tuesday last week, Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) reported impressive results for the third quarter. In fact, Shell was able to achieve a major turnaround in its bottom line performance, posting a profit of $1.4 billion as compared to a huge loss of $6.1 billion in the same quarter last year. This impressive turnaround in Shell’s bottom line was a result of an increase in production as compared to the prior-year period, driven by the acquisition of BG that led to a favorable production mix in the upstream segment.

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Royal Dutch Shell’s Realistic View On Oil Shows Why It Is The Best Oil Major

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screen-shot-2016-10-20-at-23-00-27Nov. 4, 2016 4:19 AM ET

Summary

  • Royal Dutch Shell CFO Simon Henry just forecast that global demand for oil could peak within the next 5 to 15 years and then decline.
  • This is surprising coming from an oil company executive, and runs counter to typical industry projections such as ExxonMobil’s that demand will grow 20% by 2040.
  • Shell will shift their focus to natural gas, biofuels, and hydrogen, in order to be “the energy major of the 2050s”.
  • I like Shell’s perspective a lot: It gives them multiple paths to success. Of course they will still be just fine if oil demand does keep growing.
  • But if Shell is right, they will be ready and their management decisions over the next 5 to 15 years will be two steps ahead of everyone else’s.

On its earnings conference call this week, Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) (NYSE: RDS.B) made a suprising commentary on its perspective for the global oil market over the next two decades: Its CFO Simon Henry forecast that global demand for oil could peak within the next 5 to 15 years and then decline.

Such an apparently pessimistic and bearish forecast is not what you usually expect to hear from a major oil company executive, to say the least. As the article pointed out, ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) annual outlook makes a more typical projection for the industry: about a 20% increase in global oil demand from 2014 to 2040.

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Shell swings to a profit, outlook uncertain

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screen-shot-2016-10-20-at-23-00-27Nov. 1, 2016 4:30 AM ET|By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor

“Shell delivered better results this quarter… but lower oil prices continue to be a significant challenge across the business, and the outlook remains uncertain,” Chief Executive Ben van Beurden said in a statement.

Earnings on a current cost of supplies basis reached $1.4B in Q3, after contracting $6.1B in the same period a year ago, as higher production from acquisition BG Group and lower operating costs helped support earnings.

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Royal Dutch Shell – Additional Divestments In Order To Sustain The Dividend

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Oct. 21, 2016 10:17 AM ET

Summary

  • Shell is announcing further divestments, this time selling part of its shale operations in Canada.
  • These moves do little to address the giant debt load, although they allow for cash flow neutrality this year.
  • Asset sales, resulting in smaller operations, combined with shareholder dilution hurt the long term potential as management stubbornly tries to preserve the dividend.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) announced another round of divestments in order to keep leverage under control, even as oil prices have rebounded a bit in recent times. These modest divestments are countercyclical and hurt production quite a bit in relation to the proceeds. At best cash outflows come to a standstill this year following these moves, although they result in a smaller business going forward, while investors see dilution of the shareholder base in order to sustain the unsustainable dividend.

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Fitch: Batteries could be key disruptor to oil industry in “investor death spiral”

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Oct 18 2016, 12:45 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Oil producers such as ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) must prepare for radical change as adoption of new technologies like electric cars could happen faster than originally anticipated, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings.

“Widespread adoption of battery-powered vehicles is a serious threat to the oil industry,” and an acceleration of the electrification of transport infrastructure could create an “investor death spiral” as investors flee the oil patch, Fitch warns.

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Shell says it remains committed to Showa Shell stake sale despite hangup

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Oct 13 2016, 14:58 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) says it remains committed to selling the majority of its stake in Japanese venture Showa Shell to refiner Idemitsu after the Japanese entities announced an indefinite delay of a planned merger.

The founding family of Idemitsu, which controls a 33.9% stake in the refinery, opposes the merger, although the company says it has not changed its plan to buy a one-third stake in Showa Shell for ~¥170B ($1.7B) this month or next.

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Royal Dutch Shell: The Turnaround Will Continue

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screen-shot-2016-10-06-at-13-11-55Alpha Investor: 12 October 2016

Summary

Royal Dutch Shell shares have received a boost in the past month on the back of an improvement in oil prices, a trend that is likely to continue.

There was excess oil demand of 500,000 bpd in the third quarter as against supply due to production cuts across the globe and robust demand, leading to an inventory correction.

Oil prices will rise further as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. are all intent on reducing the industry oversupply, which will lead to further inventory declines.

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Outlook For Shell Mixed – Caution Ahead

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Gary Bourgeault: October 7, 2016

Summary

  • Debt load associated with BG Group acquisition still weighs heavily on Shell.
  • With a larger percentage of its business gas, it continues to struggle to sustainably break the $3 barrier.
  • EPS will probably drop by over 40 percent for the year.
  • Nigerian asset sales and risks to other holdings in the nation remain a concern.
  • Dividend could remain at current level if the price of oil and gas maintain a higher bottom.

Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE:RDS.A) has been taking some good steps to prepare for what it believes will be a strong future for LNG demand, as it puts various pieces of its infrastructure in place around the world. It has the goal of continuing to focus primarily on gas as its major product, looking for a time when it sustainably rebounds in price.

The long term prospects for Shell look fairly solid, but it does face some significant headwinds in the short term, including the debt overhang coming from its acquisition of BG Group, downward pressure on earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS), prolonged period of lower natural gas prices, and the loss of revenue from asset sales in Nigeria, along with the risk in the country for other projects it still has there.

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Oil: OPEC Finally Agrees And Investor Takeaways

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Dividend Income: 5 October 2016

Summary

  • OPEC has agreed to put a ceiling on oil production at 32.5 million barrels per day, representing a 900k cut from its current output at 33.4 million.
  • The news supported oil’s rise by nearly 10 percent, and benefits some companies significantly more than others.
  • The author still recommends to stay away from offshore, but upstream producers with lower break even cost could be an attractive investment. Integrated majors’ dividends are also safer than ever.

News Summary

To the surprise of everyone, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC) has agreed to put a ceiling on oil production at 32.5 million barrels per day, which is significantly less than its current 33.4 million barrels per day of production. The news has helped oil price rally nearly 10% to almost $51.50 per barrel Brent.

In this article, I will try to dissect the news and its effect on integrated majors, upstream producers and offshore producers. Of course, the news benefit some of these companies significantly more than others, which are actually unaffected or evenly negatively affected by the news. Similarly, I will analyze how it will affect the United State Oil ETF (NYSEARCA:USO) and other oil related ETFs going forward.

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Nigeria sues oil companies for $12.7B over “illegal” oil exports

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Sep 20 2016, 15:19 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Nigerian officials say the government is suing several major oil companies for $12.7B of oil that allegedly was exported illegally to the U.S. during 2011-14.

The Federal High Court in Lagos begins hearings next week in cases filed against Nigerian subsidiaries of Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), Eni (NYSE:E), Total (NYSE:TOT) and Petrobras (NYSE:PBR).

The officials say the government alleges that the companies did not declare more than 57M barrels of crude oil shipments.

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What Is Really Pushing Oil Prices Down?

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Gaurav Agnihotri: 19 Sept 2016

Oil prices fell last week after the IEA and OPEC reported in their respective oil market reports that the supply-demand rebalancing of oil will take longer than market expectations. The WTI (WTI) and Brent were down by almost 2% and were trading at $43.3 and $45.77 at the time of writing this article. Even the U.S rig count increased for the 12th week in a row. Oil prices are going down as markets have realized that global oil supplies are only going to increase in the coming time. “It really looks similar to the period of the early 1990s, when we were at $20 oil. Is $45 to $50 the new $20? I am not ready to say we are in this new equilibrium environment, but it sure does feel like we’re moving in that direction,” said the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Jeff Curie. It must be noted that investment firms such as Goldman Sachs have started lowering their 2017 forecast for oil prices. Let us look at those factors that are putting downward pressure on oil.

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What Royal Dutch Shell Is Doing To Solve LNG’s Biggest Challenge

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By Gary Bourgeault: 19 Sept 2016

There is one basic thing Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) needs to do to take full advantage of its LNG strategy, and that is to boost demand by increasing the number of fueling stations in the markets they’re competing in.

It has been marketing its LNG brand for some time, but it hasn’t had the desired impact in the short term because the infrastructure isn’t in place to respond to demand. If it can’t service demand than marketing efforts are underwhelming to say the least.

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Royal Dutch Shell: An Unsustainable Dividend

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Jesse Moore: Sept 15, 2016

Summary

  • Shell is funding its dividend and capital expense programs through a combination of debt and asset sales.
  • Those assets are operating, economic assets that provide long-term value to the company under its assumptions.
  • Shell has one year of leeway at current prices to fund its dividend after that rising debt will put too much pressure on the companies balance sheet.
  • Since I have a negative outlook on prices till at least 2018, I expect a Shell dividend cut in the first half of 2017.
  • Adding to the long list of resource companies with debt-funded dividends, we have Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B). With a current yield of nearly 8%, and assuming you knew nothing about oil and gas, you could reasonably conclude this company is in peak operating condition. Unfortunately for investors, that story would be far from true.

Capital Expense – Free Cash Gap Growing

Many Shell investors focus on the stability of the dividend as a hallmark of the stock. Those investors are seemingly immune to what the balance sheet, cash flow statement tell us. As the company has pushed towards gas and is being pushed by its investors towards renewables, the capital expense bills have piled up. Throughout the oil downturn, Shell has hardly reduced capital expense in line with free cash flow – a result of long-term project planning that cannot be reined in.

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Groningen gas demand seen falling sharply

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Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 08.40.08Groningen gas demand seen falling sharply

The Netherlands has been forced to scale back production at Groningen, which once supplied 10% of European Union gas requirements, to 24B cm/year due to damage from earthquakes.

Sep 13 2016, 08:31 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Demand for gas from the Groningen field in the Netherlands will fall sharply from 2020 as production is reduced, Economy Minister Kamp says in a letter to the Dutch parliament.

The Netherlands has been forced to scale back production at Groningen, which once supplied 10% of European Union gas requirements, to 24B cm/year due to damage from earthquakes.

Groningen is operated by a joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM).

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Report: Shell considering sale of 600 Argentina gas stations

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Sep 8 2016, 08:38 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) is considering selling ~600 gas stations in Argentina as part of a strategic review of its downstream assets in the country, Business Times reports.

Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said at a conference in New York yesterday that the company is in the middle of a strategic review of its downstream assets in Argentina as part of a $30B divestment program.

Shell has market share of 19% in Argentina for gas stations, making it the second biggest seller after state-owned YPF.

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Shell Midstream Partners – Reliable Yield During The Downturn

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Shell Midstream Partners IPO – Bidness ECT

The Value Portfolio: Sept 2, 2016

Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE: SHLX) is a master-limited partnership formed by Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) (NYSE: RDS.B). The company was formed for the purpose of purchasing midstream assets and renting them out for reliable fee-based income. This fee-based income provides investors with a secure dividend which currently amounts to more than 3% and has a strong history of growth.

Shell Midstream Partners has had a difficult time recently, though not as a difficult of a time as all the other oil companies. Since mid-2015, when other midstream companies such as Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) began to take a big hit, Shell Midstream Partners has seen its stock price drop from almost $48 per unit to just over $30 per unit, a drop of almost 40%. This drop means that Shell Midstream Partners has seen its yield almost double to more than 3% per unit.

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Shell Sells Gulf Of Mexico Asset, But Faces A Tough Road Ahead

Screen Shot 2016-08-31 at 23.13.17Sarfaraz A. Khan: Aug. 31, 2016 3:20 PM ET

Summary

  • Royal Dutch Shell has agreed to sell its Brutus/Glider assets in the U.S. GoM to EnVen Energy for $425 million in cash.
  • The asset sale is a small step in the right direction which will improve Shell’s cash reserves.
  • The company, however, has made little progress toward achieving its target of selling $6Bn to $8Bn assets this year and $30Bn by 2018.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) has recently agreed to sell its Brutus/Glider assets in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to Houston-based EnVen Energy for $425 million in cash. Shell was pumping 25,000 barrels of oil per day from these offshore properties, which was equivalent to 5.8% of the oil giant’s Gulf of Mexico production or less than 1% of its total production.

The asset sale is a small step in the right direction which will improve Shell’s cash reserves which stood at $15.2 billion at the end of June. Shell intends to sell $6 billion to $8 billion of assets this year. Overall, the company aims to dispose $30 billion of assets, spread in 5 to 10 countries and representing 10% of its production, by 2018. That will allow the company to reduce its debt which has ballooned following the $53 billion takeover of BG Group.

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Shell’s U.S. oilfield sale may bode well for disposal program

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…analysts also say further deals may prove harder to clinch

Aug 30 2016, 11:47 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Analysts say Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS.A, RDS.B) first oilfield sale after its BG Group acquisition bodes well for its sale talks in the North Sea, Gabon and New Zealand, signaling that buyers will meet the company’s expectations on value.

The $425M sale of the Brutus/Glider fields has an implied oil price of ~$60/bbl, more than $10/bbl above current prices, according to UBS analysts who say “we may now be entering a period where both buyer and seller can see acceptable relative value, unlocking the A&D [acquisition and divestiture] market.”

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Reuters: Partial restart of Motiva Convent hydrocracker seen by year-end

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Aug 22 2016, 14:58 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Motiva Enterprises’ 235K bbl/day Convent, La., refinery plans a partial restart of the heavy oil hydrocracking unit by year-end, but full production is not expected to return before fall 2017 as repairs are made from the Aug. 11 fire, Reuters reports, citing Gulf Coast market sources.

In addition to extensive repairs required to return the 45K bbl/day hydrocracker, Motiva will revamp the unit during the shutdown for the planned linking of the Convent refinery with the company’s refinery in Norco, La., sometime next year, according to the report.

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Fire causes evacuation of Motiva refinery in Louisiana

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Fire causes evacuation of Motiva refinery in Louisiana

Aug 11 2016, 16:39 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

A large fire at the 235K bbl/day Motiva Enterprises refinery in Louisiana today forced workers to evacuate, causing a key distillation unit to shut and boosting prices of oil products.

The fire, which reportedly started in the 45K bbl/day heavy oil hydrocracker unit, is still burning but is now under control; it is not yet known what caused the fire or how long it would take to repair any damage, which could take months to fix if the fire damaged the reactors.

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Shell’s “ballooning” debt could put 7.5% dividend at risk, analyst says

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Aug 10 2016, 14:57 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS.A, RDS.B) 7.5% dividend could be at risk because of its “ballooning” debt, says Raymond James analyst Jean-Pierre Dmirdjian, adding that the concerns outweigh the longer-term appeal of the company’s transformation story.

The analyst says his fair value of ~$27/share makes Shell seem like a potential buy, but it is “too soon to be charmed by the reshaping plan” announced in June.

James notes the “unsupportive oil price environment [which] puts a strain on cash flow” and makes debt reduction an increasing priority; the firm reiterates its Market Perform rating on the stock.

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Dividend At Risk – Royal Dutch Shell

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Summary

Shell produced a meager $3B of operating Cashflow for H1 2016.

Cash Commitments for Capex, Debt and Dividends were about $20B.

Shell does not stack up until an oil recovery to $80 IMO.

Introduction

Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) released results this morning in Europe. Both the London and Amsterdam listings are down 4%. RDS is yielding about 7% this morning at current prices in Amsterdam.

Let’s get the disclosure bit over with. I was long Shell up until a few months ago. I sold as its share price recovered from the January meltdown. Having analyzed the company several times on SA, I concluded I was not comfortable holding the stock. Of course, if I had continued to hold and sold now, I would have made a much better return at today’s prices.

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Royal Dutch Shell: Huge Dividend And Long-Term Growth Ahead

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Wayne Duggan: 20 July 2016

A number of British stocks have been hit hard since the referendum vote to leave the EU, but Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) is not one of them. Shares are now up 0.3% since the Brexit vote after initially falling more than 8% during the knee-jerk market sell-off.

With the possibility that the Brexit could severely impact British GDP growth in coming years, RDS.B offers a unique opportunity to invest in a company within a sector that is in a global upswing, a company that has significant international exposure and a company that is committed to maintaining the single largest dividend payment in the MSCI World Index.

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Barron’s: Shell is “the world’s best big oil stock”

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Jul 18 2016, 11:44 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A +0.2%) appears barely affected by a Barron’s cover story this weekend which calls it “the world’s best big oil stock,” whose makeover could lift shares by more than 20% in a year even without a rise in oil prices.

Barron’s Jack Hough says Shell’s cost cuts and divestments look like more like a “recommitment to capitalism” rather than just an austerity drive, and has increased confidence in the company’s lofty 6.6% dividend yield.

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Royal Dutch Shell: This Is Another Catalyst

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Jun. 30, 2016 4:35 PM ET

Summary

  • Royal Dutch Shell witnessed weakness in the downstream segment last quarter due to lower refining margins, but this is about to change going forward.
  • There has been a rapid recovery in the refining marker margins, which has increased from around $9 a barrel to almost $17 a barrel within a short time.
  • Shell’s downstream performance will improve as refining margins in the second quarter averaged higher than the first quarter, with more upside expected going forward.
  • Driven by higher gasoline consumption and increasing utilization rates, refining margins will increase in the long run and act as a tailwind for Shell.
  • Shell’s structural improvements in the downstream, such as refinery integration in Louisiana, will allow it to lower costs and tap the end-market demand in a better manner.

In a recent article on Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), I had focused on how an improvement in the upstream business will bring about a recovery in the company’s overall financial performance. The upstream business was under a lot of pressure in the first quarter, and a rally in oil prices over the past few months will ease the pressure on the same as oil price realizations improve.

But, being an integrated oil and gas company, Shell’s performance will also be driven by its downstream segment, which was also under pressure last quarter as refining margins took a tumble. So, in this article, we will see how Shell’s downstream segment has done and how it might do going forward.

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Royal Dutch Shell’s Recovery Will Strengthen The Rally

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Jun. 29, 2016 4:22 PM ET|

Summary

Royal Dutch Shell’s upstream business has struggled on account of lower oil price realizations, but this is about to change going forward.

With Brent now hovering around $50, the average price of oil has improved in the second quarter and this will help Shell improve its realizations in the upstream.

Shell’s upstream performance could improve further as higher inventory drawdown on the back of weakening production and stronger demand will lead to higher prices.

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Royal Dutch Shell Has Served Notice – The Deepwater Drillers Are In Big Trouble

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June 23, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-05-21 at 10.18.28Summary

  • Eighteen months ago Shell was considering exiting shale plays and focusing on its deepwater and LNG opportunities.
  • Shell’s recent analyst day presentations revealed a company that is shifting its long term focus towards shale.
  • We think that going forward the offshore drilling rig companies have major long term challenges and investors need to be aware that pre-crash cash flows aren’t coming back.

For the small sliver of global oil production that U.S shale oil actually represents it certainly has been a disruptive force.

Total shale production (there is no significant amount outside of the United States) is currently somewhere around 4.5 million barrels per day.

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That is not much more than four percent of total current production which checks in at over 96 million barrels per day.

After having a look at Shell’s (NYSE:RDS.A) 2016 capital markets day presentation we think shale oil is going to become even more disruptive going forward for a select group of companies.

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Royal Dutch Shell Should Acquire Noble Corporation

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The Value Portfolio: Jun. 15, 2016 2:04 AM ET

Summary

  • Royal Dutch Shell’s capital markets presentation shows the company’s impressive and growing deepwater ambitions.
  • The company is Noble Corporation’s largest customer and represents more than 60% of its backlog.
  • The acquisition of Noble Corporation will bring Royal Dutch Shell returns higher than the present returns it expects to get from deepwater drilling overall.

Introduction

Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) (NYSE: RDS.B) is an Anglo-Dutch multinational oil & gas company headquartered in the Netherlands and incorporated in the United Kingdom. It is the second-largest publicly traded oil company in the world, with a market cap of just under $200 billion, second only to Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) with a market cap of $378 billion.

Noble Corporation (NYSE: NE) is an offshore drilling contractor also incorporated in London, the United Kingdom. It is the successor of the Noble Drilling Corporation and operates by providing drilling rigs to various oil companies in exchange for contracts. However, since Noble Corporation does not have Royal Dutch Shell’s oil major status, the company has seen its stock price decimated since the start of the oil crash.

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