By Javier Blas in London and Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: December 9 2008 20:09 | Last updated: December 9 2008 20:09
Global oil demand will collapse next year and commodities will not return to the highs they reached this summer in the foreseeable future, two authoritative reports said on Tuesday as they forecast a long and painful worldwide recession.
The stark conclusions came as the World Banks chief economist predicted that the world faced the worst recession since the Great Depression.
The US energy department said global oil demand will fall this year and next, marking the first two consecutive years decline in 30 years.
The increasing likelihood of a prolonged global economic downturn continues to dominate market perceptions, putting downward pressure on oil prices, it said, forecasting that demand would drop 50,000 barrels a day this year and a hefty 450,000 b/d in 2009. US oil demand will drop next year to the lowest level in 11 years.
Meanwhile, the World Banks Global Economic Prospects report said the commodities boom of the past five years which drove up prices 130 per cent had come to an end.
The World Banks analysis of the commodities boom contrasts with the prevalent view among natural resources companies and most Wall Street analysts that the ongoing price drop is a correction within an upward trend.
Although it ruled out a return to the torrid high prices of this summer, it said commodities prices would not fall back to the depressed levels of the 1990s.
Oil would return to about $75 a barrel within the next three years, it said, while food would trade 60 per cent higher than in 2003, but about half below this years record.
Over the longer run, the price of extracted commodities should fall, the bank said, adding that because of slower population and income growth, world demand for raw materials will ease.
Andrew Burns, the leading author of the report, dismissed the idea widely supported among the industry and international bodies such as the International Energy Agency that the credit crunch could result in higher prices when the economy recovers as companies cancel supply expansion projects.
The bank forecast that world trade an engine of growth for many developing countries would contract for the first time since 1982.
Justin Lin, the World Banks chief economist, said the current downturn was likely to see simultaneous recessions in most of the industrialised world, and that these recessions were likely to last longer than in the early 1980s, and the decline in growth would be more universal than in past episodes in recent decades.
EDITORS CHOICE
Analysis: So long, super-cycle – Dec-09
Lex: Sliding oil prices – Dec-09
Brazil farmers lose debt battle – Dec-09
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Royal Dutch Shell conspired directly with Hitler, financed the Nazi Party, was anti-Semitic and sold out its own Dutch Jewish employees to the Nazis. Shell had a close relationship with the Nazis during and after the reign of Sir Henri Deterding, an ardent Nazi, and the founder and decades long leader of the Royal Dutch Shell Group. His burial ceremony, which had all the trappings of a state funeral, was held at his private estate in Mecklenburg, Germany. The spectacle (photographs below) included a funeral procession led by a horse drawn funeral hearse with senior Nazis officials and senior Royal Dutch Shell directors in attendance, Nazi salutes at the graveside, swastika banners on display and wreaths and personal tributes from Adolf Hitler and Reichsmarschall, Hermann Goring. Deterding was an honored associate and supporter of Hitler and a personal friend of Goring.
Deterding was the guest of Hitler during a four day summit meeting at Berchtesgaden. Sir Henri and Hitler both had ambitions on Russian oil fields. Only an honored personal guest would be rewarded with a private four day meeting at Hitler’s mountain top retreat.
IN JULY 2007, MR BILL CAMPBELL (ABOVE, A RETIRED GROUP AUDITOR OF SHELL INTERNATIONAL SENT AN EMAIL TO EVERY UK MP AND MEMBER OF THE HOUSE OF LORDS: 
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A head-cut image of Alfred Donovan (now deceased) appears courtesy of The Wall Street Journal.
