Posted on Feb 13th, 2007 with stocks: RDS.A, REP, TOT, USO
Despite sitting on 11% of the world’s oil reserves, second only to Saudi Arabia, Iran’s current output is only 3.9 million barrels a day (of which 2.5m are exported), versus over 6m barrels in the ’70s. It recently reduced its 2010 production target from 5m b/d to 4.5m. Iran is facing a natural output decline of 8-10% per year, equal to 200-500,000 barrels a day, and lack of investment.
It has signed no firm oil or natural gas contracts with foreign investors since June 2005. Oil sales of $47 billion in 2006 generated half its government’s revenue, but lack of refining capacity means that Iran imports 40% of its gasoline. It spends $20b per year — 15% of its economic output — on gasoline subsidies to appease its population, resulting in a pump price of $0.35/gallon.
That has led to double-digit domestic demand growth, to 1.5m b/d (triple its 1980 level), requiring the country to import 170,000 barrels of gasoline a day at a cost of over $4b in 2006. The government plans to start rationing gasoline in March, an unpopular move that has been postponed numerous times. If demand continues to grow at current rates, some analysts predict Iran’s oil exports will dry up within 10 years. Iran buys gasoline from India, which is also planning a natural gas pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan, and is trying to attract foreign investment from Russia, China and Europe to boost its oil and gas output.
But potential partners have signed few deals so far, preferring to see how the political situation plays out. Royal Dutch Shell and Spain’s Repsol recently agreed to develop South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas field, though a final decision isn’t due until end-2007; France’s Total is also in talks.
Sources: New York Times
Commentary: No Need for More Cutbacks if Oil Prices Hold – Saudi Oil Minister • Russia and Iran Ponder an OPEC-Like Natural Gas Cartel • ONGEC Price Hike? Natural Gas Deeply Underpriced Anyway
Stocks/ETFs to watch: U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO), Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A), Repsol YPF S.A. (REP), Total S.A. (TOT).
Royal Dutch Shell conspired directly with Hitler, financed the Nazi Party, was anti-Semitic and sold out its own Dutch Jewish employees to the Nazis. Shell had a close relationship with the Nazis during and after the reign of Sir Henri Deterding, an ardent Nazi, and the founder and decades long leader of the Royal Dutch Shell Group. His burial ceremony, which had all the trappings of a state funeral, was held at his private estate in Mecklenburg, Germany. The spectacle (photographs below) included a funeral procession led by a horse drawn funeral hearse with senior Nazis officials and senior Royal Dutch Shell directors in attendance, Nazi salutes at the graveside, swastika banners on display and wreaths and personal tributes from Adolf Hitler and Reichsmarschall, Hermann Goring. Deterding was an honored associate and supporter of Hitler and a personal friend of Goring.
Deterding was the guest of Hitler during a four day summit meeting at Berchtesgaden. Sir Henri and Hitler both had ambitions on Russian oil fields. Only an honored personal guest would be rewarded with a private four day meeting at Hitler’s mountain top retreat.
IN JULY 2007, MR BILL CAMPBELL (ABOVE, A RETIRED GROUP AUDITOR OF SHELL INTERNATIONAL SENT AN EMAIL TO EVERY UK MP AND MEMBER OF THE HOUSE OF LORDS: 
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A head-cut image of Alfred Donovan (now deceased) appears courtesy of The Wall Street Journal.
