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Posts under ‘Peak Oil’

Shell’s long view

By Ed Crooks: Sunday September 10, 2017

Royal Dutch Shell this week set out its views on the outlook over the next few decades, in presentations to investors in New York and London. Shell has been thinking deeply for decades about how to model the future. The scenarios it sets out are more explicit about the uncertainties involved than other projections, which sometimes seem to imply that we can be confident oil consumption in 2040 will be 110.8m barrels per day, or with other overly precise figures. read more

BP and Shell face huge challenge from switch to electric cars

Petrol pumps will become a thing of the past as charging points replace them: WEEGEE (ARTHUR FELLIG)/INTERNATIONAL CENTER OF PHOTOGRAPHY/GETTY IMAGES

Emily Gosden, Energy Editor: 31 July 2017

Oil investors are getting worried. Electric cars have accelerated on to the front pages. Sales are surging, carmakers are unveiling plans for all-electric models and this week Britain vowed to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040.

Yet if Big Oil believes that death is about to pull up in a Tesla, it’s doing a good job of hiding it. On Thursday, Ben van Beurden, the boss of Royal Dutch Shell, welcomed Britain’s plans and declared that his next car would be electric. And earlier in the year Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, bluntly described the arrival of electric vehicles on the oil majors’ lawn as “not a game-changer”, adding that not even “enormous” growth in sales of such vehicles would make a big dent in global oil demand. read more

Get Ready for Peak Oil Demand

By Lynn Cook and Elena Cherney: 

Forecasts for peak oil demand diverge by decades. The Paris-based International Energy Agency argues that demand will grow, albeit slowly, past 2040. And the two biggest U.S. oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. , say peak demand isn’t in sight.

But some big European producers predict that a peak could emerge as soon as 2025 or 2030, and they are overhauling their long-term investment plans to diversify away from crude oil. Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Norway’s Statoil SA are placing bigger bets on natural gas and renewables, including wind and solar. read more

Royal Dutch Shell’s Realistic View On Oil Shows Why It Is The Best Oil Major

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screen-shot-2016-10-20-at-23-00-27Nov. 4, 2016 4:19 AM ET

Summary

  • Royal Dutch Shell CFO Simon Henry just forecast that global demand for oil could peak within the next 5 to 15 years and then decline.
  • This is surprising coming from an oil company executive, and runs counter to typical industry projections such as ExxonMobil’s that demand will grow 20% by 2040.
  • Shell will shift their focus to natural gas, biofuels, and hydrogen, in order to be “the energy major of the 2050s”.
  • I like Shell’s perspective a lot: It gives them multiple paths to success. Of course they will still be just fine if oil demand does keep growing.
  • But if Shell is right, they will be ready and their management decisions over the next 5 to 15 years will be two steps ahead of everyone else’s.

On its earnings conference call this week, Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) (NYSE: RDS.B) made a suprising commentary on its perspective for the global oil market over the next two decades: Its CFO Simon Henry forecast that global demand for oil could peak within the next 5 to 15 years and then decline.

Such an apparently pessimistic and bearish forecast is not what you usually expect to hear from a major oil company executive, to say the least. As the article pointed out, ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) annual outlook makes a more typical projection for the industry: about a 20% increase in global oil demand from 2014 to 2040. read more

No credibility in Shell Peak Oil Forecasts, says John Donovan

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screen-shot-2016-11-03-at-14-50-16A number of articles have been published today reporting a forecast by Shell CFO Simon Henry, that “Peak Oil” could be just 5 years away. e.g.

Oil Demand Peak Could Be Just 5 Years Away: Shell

Oil falls after Shell warns peak demand ‘five years off’

Shell makes a jaw-dropping statement on peak oil

It is, therefore, an appropriate moment to look back on a directly related forecast made in January 2008, by the then Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer. He forecast that demand for oil and gas would outstrip supply within 7 years, meaning by 2015. The hopelessly inaccurate prediction was based on an assessment from the Shell Scenarios team. No doubt many of the same geniuses now advising Simon Henry. read more

Shell thinks demand for oil could peak in five years

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Written by Bloomberg – 02/11/2016 4:16 pm

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s second-biggest oil company by market value, thinks demand for oil could peak in as little as five years.

“We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply,” Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry said on a conference call on Tuesday. “And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport.” read more

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